Market modelling and simulation

Experience design for DecisionPower.

As Senior Market Modeller I was responsible for designing and simulating models of consumer markets using DecisionPower’s flagship software product, MarketSim. My extensive experience in electrical communications engineering meant that I had a significant background in systems theory and simulation, statistical algorithms and probabilistic mathematics.

The start-up company was made up of a small group of Silicon Valley engineers and entrepreneurs promoting the unique advantages of an agent-based modelling approach to market research and forecasting. As such there was considerable overlap in the areas of development and the need to win new business.

In addition to working on existing accounts in the beverage and other FMCG sectors, I created a number of agent-based modelling (ABM) demos in support of sales and marketing. These included a variety of different market models for industries ranging from automobiles to pharmaceuticals.

Each model was first defined in terms of the individual “agents” that made up the market space. For example, agents can be people, products, advertising messages or external factors which all interact with each other resulting in local cues that can then lead to a more organic or bottom up style of decision making known as emergent behavior. This kind of unpredictable behavior is a key advantage of an ABM model vs. traditional regressive algorithms which are limited by only what happened in the past.

Agents are further defined in the model with both intrinsic (status seeking BMW enthusiast) and extrinsic attributes (BMW 750 is a four door sedan). Next market specific data was loaded into the model for product, price, placement and promotional information. The model was then calibrated in order to establish a baseline for the ABM forecast simulation. Finally, the results were interpreted and prepared for presentation to the client teams.

Insights reports were then delivered explaining the model and outlining the key financial results of the forecast such as market share and revenue. Further information such as top influencers on awareness and persuasion were also included to detail causes for consumer preferences and decisions in the virtual marketplace.